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Articles and Commentary

Gold and Silver - An Important Alert!
By Peter Degraaf
April 23, 2009

The Gold Direction Indicator is flashing another buy signal. This indicates that the pull-back that started late February is probably finished. A new rally is about to start.

Some of the monetary inflation that the Obama team is injecting into the system is starting to turn into price inflation. The stock market rally which had drawn attention and money away from the gold market is running out of steam. The situation in Pakistan which has been smoldering for months is moving to the front pages, and is causing anxiety in India, where people buy gold bullion when fear mounts.

The loss of trust in the banking system along with the corruption on Wall Street and the sheer incompetence of the Obama administration (headed by a man who has been put in charge of the largest 'corporation' in the world without any experience to run a business) virtually guarantees that the record amount of monetary inflation that is currently being generated will turn into price inflation which will make the problems we saw in the late 1970s appear to have been a picnic by comparison.

Charts courtesy stockcharts.com.


Featured is the 30 year bond chart. The trend since the beginning of the year is downward, indicating that long-term interest rates are beginning to reflect the watering down of the dollar through monetary inflation. The supporting indicators (RSI and MACD) are negative. While some resistance to lower bond prices is to be expected here at the 200DMA, once price breaks down below the purple arrow it will become obvious to a lot more people that the bond market is continuing to worry about price inflation.


Featured is another chart that points to price inflation. This is the index that compares gold to long-bonds. It is an important component of my unique 'Gold Direction Indicator.' When this index turns up, it signals a buy for gold and a sell for bonds. It did so reliably in December. When this index turns down it signals a sell for gold and a buy for bonds, and it did so reliably for a short-term trade in February. At the moment the index is flashing a buy for gold, and a sell for bonds (blue arrow). The supporting indicators are positive.


Featured is another component of my unique Gold Direction Indicator. It is the index that compares the gold and silver stocks of the HUI to the price of gold. The trend has been bullish since November, and every now and then it produces an upside reversal (blue arrows). The index is working on the fourth such reversal right now, and once the index closes above the green arrow it will become obvious to everyone. The supporting indicators are at support levels, ready to turn positive. The 50DMA is on track for a bullish crossover with the 200DMA.


Featured is the CCI index of commodities. After completing an ABC bottom, CCI is now carving out a bullish ARAT. A breakout at the blue arrow spells more price inflation. The supporting indicators are positive.


Featured is another component of my unique Gold Direction Indicator. It is the chart that features the performance of gold compared to the S&P 500 index. When this component turns up it is time to buy gold and sell stocks. When it turns down, short-term traders do the opposite. The supporting indicators are turning positive indicating the trend is about to move in the direction of the blue arrow (gold outperforming generic stocks).


SUMMARY

I know I'm going to receive some angry letters from Obama followers. So before you get too excited, consider this: despite the fact that weather in North America is getting progressively colder as part of normal weather cycles, and although there is no hard evidence for Global Warming, the Obama administration is on track to waste hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars to fight Global Warming. The President is willing to disturb entire industries with his Carbon Caps.

Instead of relying on Keynesian educated people without business experience, Obama should have taken a page from former President Reagan who, during his first few days in office, appointed a committee of well-known business leaders to plan economic progress. Where is Lee Iacocca when we need him?

The result of Mr. Obama's actions will be wasted resources resulting in tax increases and a large dose of stagflation -- reduced business activity, reduced government revenue along with rising prices.


DISCLAIMER

Please do your own due diligence. I am NOT responsible for your trading decisions.

Happy trading!


PETER DEGRAAF is an online stock trader with over 50 years of investing experience. He issues a weekend report for his many subscribers. A sample copy of a previous report is available upon request. He can be reached at itiswell@cogeco.ca. At his website (pdegraaf.com) you will find a number of long-term charts that are updated regularly. Fourty-seven pages of worthwhile quotes are proving to be a very popular attraction as well. Subscription information is also available at the website.


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