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Articles and Commentary

"Weak"end Report
By Chris Vermeulen
January 22, 2010

It's been a crazy week as the gold market moved up and down like a yoyo, finally closing down sharply on the week.


Technical Chart on Gold

I thought this chart may be of interest to some of you as it shows two perfect textbook plays on the 4-hour gold futures trading chart. As you can see, the first pattern is a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This is bullish and a breakout above the neckline would signal a buy point. If we use basic technical analysis with this pattern we can measure the potential move up by looking reverse head-and-shoulders pattern. You take the low of the upside down head $1075 and go straight up to the neckline at $1117. That's a total of $42. So if we add that $42 to the breakout point above the neckline, then we can have a price target of $1117 + $42 = $1159.

As we can see, the price of gold over the next couple days rallied to the $1160 level. Trading is not that easy but that is how it works in general. The hard part is knowing how to manage your trade and I scale out of positions as the price matures reaching short term resistance levels and by adjusting my stops accordingly to lock in maximum gains while minimizing downside risk.

A couple days later the same chart formed a regular head-and-shoulders and has since moved its potential measured move. I'm not expecting a weak bounce in gold as with the overall stock market but I'm still not sure that the selling is over.


Conclusion

In short, the market was turned upside down this week. Those who follow me should be in cash or mostly in cash as this drop was anticipated a few days ago. Trading during fast moving markets is much tougher for swing traders as pivot points for indexes and commodities tend to happen during the intraday or during futures trading at night. High volatility like this is fantastic for active traders who focus on shorter time frames like the 4-hour and 60-minute charts, as opposed to trading just the daily chart and entering and exiting positions at the open and close each day.

I continue to watch the market and plan on providing some of these short term setups on the 4-hour chart using both the GLD ETF gold fund and the YG Gold Futures mini-contract.

If you are interested in trading gold futures and other contracts, please join my free Futures Trading Newsletter: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.


TheGoldAndOilGuy.com is owned and run by me (Chris Vermeulen), an individual gold trading specialist. After sharing my gold analysis with friends, traders and financial advisors, I decided to make TheGoldAndOilGuy.com my full time job in 2003. This service was designed from the ground up to help individual traders who want to focus on consistent, accurate and profitable trades. Over the past ten years my strategy has been refined to one golden trading vehicle which has an almost 100% accuracy. The GLD (DGP and DZZ) gold exchange traded funds are now the most accurate trading vehicle I have seen, so it's my vehicle of choice. Members of TheGoldAndOilGuy.com not only get to trade my signals, but see my live trading charts and ask me all the questions they wish. My goal is for all of us to make money and have fun in life.


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